The EIA forecasts Alaskan crude oil production will rise 13% in 2027, to 505,000 barrels a day, the most since 2014.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Alaskan crude oil production will rise 13% in 2027, after decades of decline. The November 12, 2026 note says two projects on the North Slope are driving the growth. The figures are a forecast, not a reported result.
In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency expects a 23,000 barrel-per-day increase in 2026, which it calls a 6% rise, followed by a 60,000 barrel-per-day rise in 2027. At a forecast 505,000 barrels a day in 2027, it says output would be the most since 2014. If those annual increases are realized, it says they would be the largest since the 1980s, when Alaskan crude production peaked at 2.0 million barrels a day.
At a forecast 505,000 barrels a day in 2027, it says output would be the most since 2014.
The agency says the Nuna project, owned by ConocoPhillips, started production in December 2024 and is expected to produce 20,000 barrels a day at its peak. So far this year, it says, the project has produced an average of 10,000 barrels a day, partly offsetting declines at existing fields.
The agency says its outlook data show third-quarter 2026 production grew 4% as Pikka Phase 1 came online, the first third-quarter production increase in more than 40 years.
Pikka Phase 1, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026. The agency says initial average monthly production was 2,000 barrels a day, and that output reached 38,000 barrels a day as of September 2026, citing the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. It expects peak production of 80,000 barrels a day by the winter of 2026-27, which it says would be nearly 20% of total Alaskan production in 2025.
The agency says its outlook data show third-quarter 2026 production grew 4% as Pikka Phase 1 came online, the first third-quarter production increase in more than 40 years. It says Alaskan crude output typically dips in late summer, when operators do annual maintenance, and has run an average of 7% lower than first-quarter levels over 2021 through 2025.
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