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Home/Energy/IEA says the oil market returns to a surplus this quarter
VERIFIEDBy Xavier Rivera·Friday, November 13, 2026 at 10:09 PM AST·2 min read

IEA says the oil market returns to a surplus this quarter

The IEA's November report says global oil supply has moved above demand for the first time since the war in Iran began. It expects a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026 and a larger build in 2027.

Source:International Energy Agency
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IEA says the oil market returns to a surplus this quarter
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TL;DRAI · 60 sec read

The IEA's November Oil Market Report says supply has moved above demand for the first time since the war in Iran began. It expects the market to return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a larger build in 2027. Demand is forecast to fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026, to 102.3 million, then rise by 2 million in 2027. October supply was 105.4 million barrels a day.

The International Energy Agency says the oil market is moving back into surplus. Its November report, published November 13, says global supply has passed demand for the first time since the war in Iran began.
The agency's November balances say the market returns to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a larger build in 2027.
The fourth quarter is the turn. The agency's November balances say the market returns to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a larger build in 2027. It had described the recent months as a shortfall. The report does not print a single barrel figure for the size of that fourth-quarter surplus.
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October supply rose with Gulf exports. Global supply rose by 2.3 million barrels a day in October, to 105.4 million barrels a day, after a 3 million barrel-a-day increase in September. The agency raised its fourth-quarter supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels a day. Gulf crude exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels a day, 26 percent below pre-war levels, and crude flows were 15 million barrels a day.
Observed stocks rose by 52 million barrels in October, or 1.7 million barrels a day, the first increase since June.
Demand is still down for the year. World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026, to 102.3 million barrels a day, then rebound by 2 million barrels a day in 2027. The year-on-year drop is set to ease to 2.7 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, from an average 4.4 million over the second and third quarters. Growth is expected to return around March 2027.
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Inventories rose, and prices fell. Observed stocks rose by 52 million barrels in October, or 1.7 million barrels a day, the first increase since June. Oil on water rose by 86 million barrels. North Sea Dated crude fell from a high of $136 a barrel on October 8 to about $93 at the time of writing, and was still $22 above pre-war levels. Full-year supply is forecast to fall by 4.8 million barrels a day in 2026 and rebound by 6.6 million, to 108.1 million barrels a day, in 2027.
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