Musk says Tesla aims for five million vehicles a year by 2030 as Optimus production begins

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on the company's Q3 earnings call on Wednesday that Tesla is aiming to produce about five million vehicles a year by approximately 2030.

Vehicle output. Musk said Tesla has been "laying the groundwork for a lot more manufacturing capacity" and has "a good shot" at the goal. He said vehicle demand is "growing rapidly," with Full Self-Driving the biggest driver, and that Tesla expects gross margins to increase meaningfully.

Optimus. Musk said early Optimus production has started at Fremont. "We do have the vast majority of a one-million-unit line in Fremont right now," he said, adding that the ramp will be slow at first and could take about a year to reach 20,000 units a week. Musk said Tesla may release a video in a month or two showing Optimus doing tasks that are not pre-programmed, and that he expects deliveries to outside companies around the end of 2027.

Robotaxi and Cybercab. Tesla AI head Ashok Elluswamy said Dallas is next for Robotaxi, with a launch planned for November, according to Teslarati. Musk said the vast majority of the Cybercab fleet will be owned by Tesla. "Unless we are stopped by governments, Tesla will end up doing a majority of all passenger miles in any country where it is allowed to operate," Musk said.

FSD. Elluswamy said unsupervised FSD could reach customer cars around the second quarter of 2027. He said Tesla is also building its own AI navigation system for FSD, which will start appearing in the v15 release.

Terafab. Musk said Terafab, the chip fab Tesla and SpaceX are building in Texas, aims to make a useful chip at volume around the third quarter of 2028 and "could be in top 20 most valuable countries" by economic value. He said Terafab will need "tens of billions" of dollars in capital equipment through early 2028 and probably more than $100 billion over the long term, with Tesla and SpaceX still working out how to split the cost, according to a Shacknews live transcript of the call. Musk said Terafab spending is not a major factor for Tesla now but will become more meaningful next year.