Turkey outlines Milli Enerji 2040 plan with $500 billion investment

Turkey's Energy and Natural Resources Ministry said on November 5 that its Milli Enerji 2040 program centers on electrification and energy independence. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar presented the plan at a launch in Istanbul ahead of COP31 in Antalya.

The ministry framed a $500 billion investment need through 2040. Bayraktar said public and private investment of $500 billion is required to reach the program's targets. He separately said about $190 billion is needed for power capacity growth and $36 billion for transmission, including expanding high-voltage lines from about 77,000 kilometers to 112,000 kilometers.

Installed power capacity is set to rise to 281,000 megawatts by 2040. Bayraktar said capacity stands at 123,000 megawatts as of 2025 and would grow by about 160,000 megawatts. Renewables would rise from 63% to 77% of the mix. Turkey would reach 36% electrification, with demand also coming from electric vehicles, data centers, green hydrogen, heat pumps, and water treatment.

Nuclear and storage targets sit alongside grid work. Beside Akkuyu's 4,800 megawatts, the plan aims for at least 5,000 megawatts of small modular reactors to reach 10,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity by 2040, covering 11% of electricity needs. Bayraktar said Turkey needs 140 gigawatt-hours of storage and wants interconnection capacity to rise from 5.4 gigawatts to 15 gigawatts.

Oil and gas production goals stay in the plan. Daily oil demand is projected to fall to 718,000 barrels as vehicles electrify, from 993,000 barrels today, with domestic and overseas production meant to cover that lower need. Natural gas production is aimed at fully covering a 57 billion cubic meter target by 2040. Bayraktar said the program also targets 92% domestic energy production and a 40% emissions cut.